Bush wins a second term.

I think this is the likely outcome in November [current electoral map]. I won't pretend that I am thrilled by this prospect. I am more socially liberal than I am fiscally conservative (not that Bush is a fiscal conservative, I mean he spends money like a drunken sailor…). On the other hand I don’t think that four more years of Bush marks the end of the world any more than a Kerry presidency would herald the beginning of some enlightened age of zero poverty and free health care for everyone.

Our government is fundamentally one of incrementalism . The slow creep of policy towards a distant goal. Neither liberals nor conservatives have enough of a popular mandate to pull policy far from the squishy middle. This is great news if you happen to love the status quo and greatly disappointing if you are on the left or right of the middle.