9.18.2004

Kerry in trouble?

Polls are only as good as there methodology. They are all slightly different. A better measure is what trend do the polls show overall. I think the trend, for the moment is fairly clear. Kerry is sinking. When a candidate starts to have trouble in the polls it is hard for the media not to start to focus on this. The media mentality of a horse race ensures that one of the primary topics on the Sunday shows this week will be what will Kerry do to comeback from this. This is a dangerous feedback loop. The more that the media portray Kerry as a losing candidate the more the fence sitters tend to move towards Bush or towards apathy. Call it a desire to be on the winning team. Kerry needs to do SOMETHING to change to subject. Unfortunately his campaign has yet find a message that resonates well with voters.