9.27.2004

Truly moderate

A thoughtfully written article on the state of the polls and the current expectations game with Kerry/Bush. A lot of liberals are starting to question the accuracy of the polls, Gallup, in particular, but regardless of any individual poll, the aggregate looks bad for Kerry.

The liberals seem to have taken up a mantra of uncounted voter, the one that the pollsters overlooked. These mystery voters are going to sweep Kerry to victory in a wave of passion. Maybe, but I doubt it. Polling isn’t a science, and there are many bunk polls out there, but they can’t all be wrong. The trend is there to spot. Whether or not you like Bush (I don’t) he seems to be solidifying his position, not eroding.

The debates are going to be very interesting. The expectations have been lowered so much for Bush that people will probably applaud if he can pronounce his own name without stuttering. Kerry on the other hand will need to bring in a performance better than Cuomo in 84 (democratic keynote widely praised as being truly awesome) just to remain viable.

I personally don’t think that Kerry has the rhetorical flourish to pull it off, but maybe he’ll surprise me.